Wednesday, October 22, 2008

What do 1980s PSAs, a 1990s one-hit wonder, and a 2000s injury-prone outfielder have in common?

Hint: imageimage image

I haven’t yet done any real baseball analysis on this blog. Let’s start exploring what the Royals should do this offseason.

Problem: Jose Guillen image  is a slow, oft-injured prima-donna douche bag. In addition, he is a poor fit for this Royals team – his greatest strength (hitting left-handed pitching) is already accounted for on the club, and his weaknesses (no walks, high strikeout rate, poor defense). And he’s signed for two more years at $12 million per.

Solution: Getting rid of him is easier said than done. That contract is burdensome. However, Guillen still has a quick bat and crushes lefties, so he could be useful in the right situation. The Royals would need to take back another bad contract in return, though. Enter the Crash Test Dummy, Eric Byrnes (He’s the one above in the baseball uniform, not the one in a car seat or one of the long-haired Canadians.)

Byrnes is currently the 4th outfielder on Arizona’s depth chart, behind youngsters Chris Young, Justin Upton, and Conor Jackson. Byrnes’ greatest asset is probably his ability to play a passable CF – his bat isn’t good enough most years to be productive in the corners. That makes him expendable in Arizona, where both Young and Upton are capable of playing center. That, and the $22 owed to him over the next two seasons, means he’s likely to be shopped around this offseason. But he likely isn’t going to command a lot of attention – next year he turns 33 and he batted .209 in a meager 52 games last season. Still, just two years ago he finished 11th in the MVP voting, so he might be able to breakout again.

Does a straight-up swap make sense? Remember, these two teams hooked up last season for the swap of Billy Buckner for Alberto Callaspo. The jury’s still out on who won (lost) that one.

Why Arizona would do it: As mentioned above, the D’backs have two guys to play CF, so they don’t really need Byrnes. Guillen, for all his headaches, put up better offensive numbers than Byrnes last year in a tougher league. Also, Guillen has the more pronounced platoon split – he crushes the sinister side while being mortal against right-handers. This does not make a huge difference if we were talking about everyday players, but this is a 4th OF spot. Guillen can be benched against righties and allowed to put up big numbers in limited at-bats. Also, his bat would be useful off the bench in late-inning situations – something that makes more sense in the NL where pinch hitters are more valuable. The mere threat of his bat coming off the bench may keep an opposing lefty-specialist in the pen instead of on the mound. Part of Guillen’s surliness was that he believed the Royals were not doing enough to win – the D’backs might be able to compete in the weak NL West next year. That could silence Guillen, even if he’s relegated to a bench role.

Why KC would do it: The acquisition of Byrnes potentially allows for an outfield of Byrnes in center, Dejesus in left, and Teahen in right. This would be an improvement at all three OF positions over last year’s triumphrate of Teahen in left, Dejesus in center, and Guillen in right. Also, Guillen’s a dick who’s fought with authority figures at every stop. Byrnes is one of the most likeable guys in baseball. I’m not sure what value chemistry has, but surely it counts for something.

Will this trade actually happen? Probably not. It makes too much sense.

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