God, I hate the winter.
As an obsessive Royals fan and with the Winter Meetings coming up, I think I’ll dissect the team roster and what I think the team should do between now and Opening Day. In this post, the hitters. Some other time (if I feel like it), the pitchers.
Warning: this is a long rambling post about a baseball team few people care about. Feel free to stop here, especially if you’re a Yankees fan. In fact, if you’re a Yankees fan, feel free to jump off a building or step into oncoming traffic.
Catcher:
Rany already covered this, but I’ll put in my two cents: Olivo is mediocre and Buck is tradebait. The team’s minor league tandem of Bryan Pena and J.R. House might be better than its Major League counterpart and costs about $5 million less per season.
The team just signed House, a 29-year old who was once a big time prospect. History suggests that 29-year old catchers are at the end of their prime years and about to fall off a cliff. However, House doesn’t have the mileage on his knees that others have. He spent a good deal of his younger years hurt, which means he didn’t actually put those years on his knees. Also, he took a year off to try his hand as third-string quarterback at West Virginia. What does all this mean? He’s the youngest 29-year-old catcher in baseball. He could break out yet and play productively in the Major Leagues well into his 30s.
First Base/ DH
Lots of candidates, and the team will likely make the wrong move here. The players: Mike Jacobs, a slow lefty who can’t walk, can’t play defense, and can’t hit left-handers but has good pop; Ryan Sheely, a slow righty who can’t walk and should probably be limited to playing against left-handed pitching; Kila Ka’aihue, a slow young Hawaiian lefty who can’t play defense but walks a ton and doesn’t strike out much; Ross Gload, a slow old guy who can’t hit or walk or run or play defense or walk and chew gum at the same time, but is “gritty”; Billy Butler, a slow fat young righty who can’t play defense, crushes lefties, and has tons of potential as a hitter.
This team never should’ve acquired Jacobs, as Ka’aihue and Sheely could ably handle the position in a platoon and played Butler at DH every day. Instead, Ka’aihue will be buried in the minor leagues and Butler will probably lose some of the at-bats that he needs to learn how to use his potential. Still, it can’t be worse than last year, when Gload played every day.
Middle Infield
Mile Aviles was a revelation as a shortstop last year and will play either second or short this year. There is reason to be concerned, as his minor league track record did not suggest he would be nearly as good as he was last year and there is evidence to show that his numbers were partly just good luck. However, even with some regression he’s a solid every day player.
As it stands right now, Alberto Callaspo is likely the starting 2B for next year. He has no punch in his bat and rarely walks, but he never strikes out and could morph into a Placido Polanco-type hitter who posts a high batting average and makes himself useful near the top of the lineup. The bigger question marks may be his glove and his history of poor off-field conduct. Esteban German is a solid backup but probably not good enough to challenge for an every day spot.
The Royals could bring in someone else to compete with Callaspo for his starting spot. Callaspo is no sure thing and it wouldn’t hurt to have some insurance in the form of a veteral non-roster invitee to Spring Training or in the form of a solid, established starter brought in via trade (Mike Fontenot?).
Third Base
This position is set. Alex Gordon will play, German is his backup. Gordon improved a bit last year and although he’s not the superstar everyone expected, he could still become one. The increase in his walk rate last year is encouraging, and against right-handing pitching he already is a star. He needs to learn to hit lefties.
Gordon reminds me a lot of Ryan Howard. No, I’m not crazy. Howard still can’t hit lefties, but hits the ball a long, long way against righties. Gordon does not get under the ball the same way Howard does, but when he runs into a pitch he hits it similarly. His home runs travel way out of the park. He also has a similar swing to Howard’s – believe me, I’ve watch a lot of both players and the part of the swing from the trigger to the follow through are remarkably similar. They even have the same bad habits. That is, when they try to pull everything, they go through bad funks, but when they try to lift the ball the other way they can carry a team. Also, both players strike out way too much.
The difference is that Howard has more patience. He draws more walks and strikes out more, but also he is more likely to wait to swing at a pitch that he can drive, whereas Gordon might not. If Gordon learns that aspect of patience, his homerun numbers could jump way up. Maybe not to the 50-range that Howard has touched, but 40 homeruns for Gordon as soon as next year is not out of the question.
Outfield
The Royals got their breakfast cereal to roam center field. The Jesus plays left. Jose Guillen’s diminishing ability plays right. So the team now has plus defenders in two positions and Guillen’s lead feet, heavy insecurities, and no longer great arm in right.
This is a unit that will likely not hit enough to be a great outfield, but is an improvement from last year as long as Joey Gathright does not lead the team in games played in center. The problem is that all three starters are injury-prone. This means the fourth outfielder will likely see 500 at-bats. The team is currently shopping its fourth outfielder, Mark Teahen, to try to upgrade its middle infield situation or its rotation.
This leaves the fourth OF, who will likely see as much time as a starter, to one of the following: Gathright (yuck), or minor leaguers Shane Costa and Mitch Meier. None of these guys has the kind of pop you’d like from a corner player, but all can man center. However, would you feel comfortable with one of those guys as essentially a starter? Neither am I. Trading Teahen might not be the best way to upgrade this team. The better solution? Trade from the sudden surplus of catchers and wait out the free agent market for March bargains. Also, try to trade Guillen for anything. A bucket of baseballs? Sold! Two Mackey Sasser rookie cards? I’d have given him up for one!
Conclusions
The team needs to have a good backup or two in the outfield. It could use some middle infield help. And it might benefit if Mike Jacobs decides to retire tomorrow. But at least Gload, Gathright, and Tony Pena, Jr. are not going to be in the lineup. That means that this will be an improved offensive team.
Sometime in the future: a post on the pitchers. Feel free to skip that one too, Yankee fans.
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